THE STUCK STATE
She built the company buying office buildings in expanding submarkets and leasing into the growth around them. Pre-pandemic vacancy ran about 5%. Three years after COVID, it was 40%.
She had expanded just as the market turned, leaving capital in buildings bought on growth assumptions that no longer held. She kept pushing on leasing, because leasing had always been the business. But in several locations another year of effort would not manufacture demand that wasn't coming.
She had roughly $40M of capital sitting in vacant office property, bleeding about $7M a year across carrying costs, debt service, and continued decline in value.
She wanted one thing settled: Do I keep carrying these buildings until office demand returns, or sell now and take the loss?
WHAT THE PRE-WORK SHOWED
Two things before I landed. The projected losses weren't spread across the portfolio — they concentrated in a minority of the properties. And commercial office as a category wasn't uniformly broken; several submarkets still supported the original thesis.
So the question she'd brought me was framed as all-or-nothing, and the numbers said it wasn't.
WHAT THE WEEK FOUND
The obvious read was that COVID had broken the model. I ruled it out. Demand had shifted, not vanished, and a full exit would have dumped viable assets alongside the failing ones.
I also ruled out leasing execution. Vacancy had held far above pre-pandemic levels for three years. In the weakest locations, a different broker or a richer incentive package doesn't create local employment growth inside an acceptable holding period.
The constraint wasn't vacancy. It was that the company had a disciplined process for buying and a disciplined process for leasing, and no process at all for selling. Nothing in the business ever asked whether a submarket had stopped earning the right to hold her capital. Every property was treated as permanent until proven otherwise, and the proof was always one more year away.
Selling wasn't an admission that the strategy failed. It was the half of the strategy that had never been built.
THE DECISION
She made selective disposition a permanent part of the model, and authorized sales in the submarkets where the growth case no longer justified three more years of carrying cost.
She chose against the alternative she'd been leaning toward: keep leasing, protect the recorded value, and wait for the market to prove her original thesis right.
It cost her. She recognized a realized loss just under $4M and gave up any upside those buildings might deliver in a later recovery. She traded a possible recovery for a known, bounded loss — and freed the capital underneath it.
WHAT HAPPENED
By January 2024, with the sales complete, she had recognized a realized loss just under $4M and freed the capital underneath it.
The alternative wasn't a $4M loss versus zero. It was a $4M loss versus $7M a year — carrying costs, debt service, and continued value decline on $40M of capital parked in buildings that weren't going to refill inside three years. She stopped a bleed to take a bounded hit.
She kept the buildings where the evidence still supported leasing and appreciation. She also left with something the sale itself didn't produce: a written rule for holding and a written rule for exiting. The weakest properties stopped setting the direction of the whole company.
6. IN HER WORDS
“I thought my choice was to wait longer or admit the whole strategy had failed. The real choice was which properties had earned the right to keep my capital.”
- QUESTION SETTLED:
- Whether to keep carrying the vacant portfolio or sell into the loss.
- SPRINT:
- 5 days on-site, March 2023.
- SINCE:
- Two years of ongoing advisory through execution.
